Iran Israel war impact on Indian share market !! Effect on Indian Share ( Stock ) Market Today

 

So, the Answer is "NO", why?

1. The core principle of economics is "conserve your resources, because resources are always scarce."
2. We need to address this whole crisis of conflict (War between Iran- Israel), in respect of West Asia, from this perspective or line of thought.

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If-

1. You need to judge or look whether a given economy is a large economy, and, 
2. simultaneously, a long-sustained economy, 
3. Just look at the data on "energy consumption" by that country's economy.

According to this data, the largest energy-consuming economies are the -

• USA, 
• China, and 

• India.

1. TheUSA is self-independent in respect of energy consumption, but India and China are energy dependent.

Please note, the means of energy we are talking about is the Oil & Natural Gas energy.

Now, from the following the utility and the implications of Iran with respect to the Indian economy.

1. Are we doing our "critical trade " (meaning that part of trade for which we do not have any alternative and it is highly dependent) with Iran except oil and natural gas, then the answer is no.
2. The second aspect is Iran, our largest Oil and natural gas exporter country? Again answer is no because Iran does not even lie in the top 5 countries.
3. The top five countries include Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, and the USA in terms of oil.
4. In respect of natural gas, it is Qatar, United Arab Emirates, United States, Angola, and Oman.

So, it simply means we do not have oil and natural gas dependency on Iran.

Next,

1. We are the fourth (4th)-largest economy in the world, while Iran is the 36th-largest economy in the world.
2. Iran is not even in the top 10 trading partners of India.

Our top 5 trading partners are -

1. the United States, 
2. China, 
3. UAE, 
4. Saudi Arabia, and 
5. Russia, 
6. + another 5, which you do not include, Iran.

Now, the only aspect that is concerning from the Indian perspective is the "Strait of Hormuz".

 

The people who do not have any idea about the strait need to understand that “it is a narrow passage or a pass like a road in the ocean which connects two separate water bodies".

👉Why is there conflict in the "Middle East" !! Reason of Right now war !! Implication of US, RUSSSIA & CHINA in West Asia Middle East

So, 

1. By following this definition, the “Strait of Hormuz” connects the Persian Gulf/ Arabian Gulf with the Arabian Sea.
2. Now, the basin countries of this "Strait of Hormuz" are the UAE, Oman, and Iran.
3. 
   
4. 
   
   
   
5. The first important point here to notice out of UAE, Oman, and Iran, it is Iran that maintains the largest military.
6. But, the largest economy, out of these three, is the UAE, followed by Iran and Oman, which 2 are almost on the same page.
7. Noted point here is that Iraq is among our top 05 largest trading partners both in oil and natural gas.

Another noted point is that, 

1. except Iran, all these countries that are 
2. Iraq, 
3. Saudi Arabia, 
4. Kuwait, 
5. Bahrain, 
6. Qatar, and 
7. Oman, are Sunni Islamic countries. 

And if, anyhow, Iran tries to capture or stop "strait of Hormuz, the oil and natural gas trade of all these countries would also be blocked not be acceptable to these countries.

Iran, which wishes to be a Middle East Islamic leader country, would not even think to stop or blackmail over the "Strait of Hormuz".

I am not saying- 

1. It cannot happen in the future or in the near future, but 
2. Only when Iran is realized, now I have nothing to do except block the "Strait of Hormuz".

But, that time would also be too late because by that time, the Iranian military would have almost half of its capability.

So, in the context of all these present circumstances, from tomorrow, the Indian stock market will not be affected negatively.

By saying "negative sense" means -

1. Tomorrow in the Indian market, there could be a gap up in the Monday market, but 
2. From tomorrow, there is also a great opportunity to enter the market, because 
3. After passing the first period out of 03, that is up after 11:00 a.m., the market would be for a positive node, hopefully, in a 02-03 day transition period.

Disclaimer- 

1. All these are my personal observations and anticipation.
2. I am not saying anything firmly or claiming anything. 
3. I am sharing my thoughts based on my last 4 years of trading experience.

Thanks.